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ATO Australian tax treatment for options trades 🇦🇺
I am posting this as I hope it will help other Australian options traders trading in US options with their tax treatment for ATO (Australian Tax Office) purposes. The ATO provides very little guidance on tax treatment for options trading and I had to do a lot of digging to get to this point. I welcome any feedback on this post.
The Deloitte Report from 2011
My initial research led me to this comprehensive Deloitte report from 2011 which is hosted on the ASX website. I've been through this document about 20 times and although it's a great report to understand how different scenarios apply, it's still really hard to find out what's changed since 2011. I am mainly relating myself to the scenario of being an individual and non-sole trader (no business set up) for my trading. I think this will apply to many others here too. According to that document, there isn't much guidance on what happens when you're an options premium seller and close positions before they expire. Note that the ATO sometimes uses the term "ETO" (Exchange Traded Option) to discuss what we're talking about here with options trading. Also note: The ATO discusses the separate Capital Gains Tax ("CGT") events that occur in each scenario in some of their documents. A CGT event will then determine what tax treatment gets applied if you don't know much about capital gains in Australia.
ATO Request for Advice
Since the Deloitte report didn't answer my questions, I eventually ended up contacting the ATO with a request for advice and tried to explain my scenario: I'm an Australian resident for tax purposes,I'm trading with tastyworks in $USD, I'm primarily a premium seller and I don't have it set up with any business/company/trust etc. In effect, I have a rough idea that I'm looking at capital gains tax but I wanted to fully understand how it worked. Initially the ATO respondent didn't understand what I was talking about when I said that I was selling a position first and buying it to close. According to the laws, there is no example of this given anywhere because it is always assumed in ATO examples that you buy a position and sell it. Why? I have no idea. I sent a follow up request with even more detail to the ATO. I think (hope) they understood what I meant now after explaining what an options premium seller is!
First, I have to consider translating my $USD to Australian dollars. How do we treat that? FX Translation If the premium from selling the options contract is received in $USD, do I convert it to $AUD on that day it is received? ATO response:
Subsection 960-50(6), Item 5 of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) states the amount should be translated at the time of the transaction or event for the purposes of the Capital Gains Tax provisions. For the purpose of granting an option to an entity, the time of the event is when you grant the option (subsection 104-20(2) ITAA 1997).
This is a very detailed response which even refers to the level of which section in the law it is coming from. I now know that I need to translate my trades from $USD to $AUD according to the RBA's translation rates for every single trade. But what about gains or losses on translation? There is one major rule that overrides FX gains and losses after digging deeper. The ATO has a "$250k balance election". This will probably apply to a lot of people trading in balances below $250k a lot of the FX rules don't apply. It states:
However, the $250,000 balance election broadly enables you to disregard certain foreign currency gains and losses on certain foreign currency denominated bank accounts and credit card accounts (called qualifying forex accounts) with balances below a specified limit.
Therefore, I'm all good disregarding FX gains and losses! I just need to ensure I translate my trades on the day they occurred. It's a bit of extra admin to do unfortunately, but it is what it is.
This is the scenario where we SELL a position first, collect premium, and close the position by making an opposite BUY order. Selling a naked PUT, for example. What happens when you open the position? ATO Response:
The option is grantedCGT event D2 happens when a taxpayer grants an option. The time of the event is when the option is granted. The capital gain or loss arising is the difference between the capital proceeds and the expenditure incurred to grant the option.
This seems straight forward. We collect premium and record a capital gain. What happens when you close the position? ATO Response:
Closing out an optionThe establishment of an ETO contract is referred to as opening a position (ASX Explanatory Booklet 'Understanding Options Trading'). A person who writes (sells) a call or put option may close out their position by taking (buying) an identical call or put option in the same series. This is referred to as the close-out of an option or the closing-out of an opening position. CGT event C2 happens when a taxpayer's ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends. Paragraph 104-25(1)(a) of the ITAA 1997 provides that ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends by cancellation, surrender, or release or similar means. CGT event C2 therefore happens to a taxpayer when their position under an ETO is closed out where the close-out results in the cancellation, release or discharge of the ETO. Under subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997 you make a capital gain from CGT event C2 if the capital proceeds from the ending are more than the assets cost base. You make a capital loss if those capital proceeds are less than the assets reduced cost base. Both CGT events (being D2 upon granting the option and C2 upon adopting the close out position) must be accounted for if applicable to a situation.
My take on this is that the BUY position that cancels out your SELL position will most often simply realise a capital loss (the entire portion of your BUY position). In effect, it 'cancels out' your original premium sold, but it's not recorded that way, it's recorded as two separate CGT events - your capital gain from CGT event D2 (SELL position), then, your capital loss from CGT event C2 (BUY position) is also recorded.In effect, they net each other out, but you don't record them as a 'netted out' number-you record them separately. From what I understand, if you were trading as a sole tradecompany then you would record them as a netted out capital gain or loss, because the trades would be classified as trading stock but not in our case here as an individual person trading options. The example I've written below should hopefully make that clearer. EXAMPLE: Trade on 1 July 2020: Open position
SELL -1 SPY 85 PUT, exp 30 August 2020
Collect Premium USD$1 per unit, and brokerage USD$5
= USD$100 premium collected, minus USD$5
= Net amount of USD$95 collected
FX Translation rate on the date of the trade: AUD $1.00 = $USD 0.70
Net Premium Collected in $AUD
= USD$95 x (1/.7)
CGT Event D2 triggered and a capital gain of $135.71 is recorded
Trade on 15 July 2020: Close position
BUY 1 SPY 85 PUT, exp 30 August 2020
Pay Premium $0.50 per unit, and brokerage $5
= $50 premium paid, plus $5
= Net amount of USD$55 paid
FX Translation rate on the date of the trade: AUD $1.00 = $USD 0.60
Net Premium Collected in $AUD
= USD$55 x (1/.6)
CGT Event C2 triggered and a capital loss of $91.66 is recorded
We can see from this simple example that even though you made a gain on those trades, you still have to record the transactions separately, as first a gain, then as a loss. Note that it is not just a matter of netting off the value of the net profit collected and converting the profit to $AUD because the exchange rate will be different on the date of the opening trade and on the date of the closing trade we have to record them separately. What if you don't close the position and the options are exercised? ATO Response:
The option is granted and then the option is exercisedUnder subsection 104-40(5) of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) the capital gain or loss from the CGT event D2 is disregarded if the option is exercised. Subsection 134-1(1), item 1, of the ITAA 1997 refers to the consequences for the grantor of the exercise of the option. Where the option binds the grantor to dispose of a CGT asset section 116-65 of the ITAA 1997 applies to the transaction. Subsection 116-65(2) of the ITAA 1997 provides that the capital proceeds from the grant or disposal of the shares (CGT asset) include any payment received for granting the option. The disposal of the shares is a CGT event A1 which occurs under subsection 104-10(3) of the ITAA 1997 when the contract for disposal is entered into. You would still make a capital gain at the happening of the CGT event D2 in the year the event occurs (the time the option is granted). That capital gain is disregarded when the option is exercised. Where the option is exercised in the subsequent tax year, the CGT event D2 gain is disregarded at that point. An amendment may be necessary to remove the gain previously included in taxable income for the year in which the CGT event D2 occurred.
This scenario is pretty unlikely - for me personally I never hold positions to expiration, but it is nice to know what happens with the tax treatment if it ultimately does come to that.
What about the scenario when you want to BUY some options first, then SELL that position and close it later? Buying a CALL, for example. This case is what the ATO originally thought my request was about before I clarified with them. They stated:
When you buy an ETO, you acquire an asset (the ETO) for the amount paid for it (that is, the premium) plus any additional costs such as brokerage fees and the Australian Clearing House (ACH) fee. These costs together form the cost base of the ETO (section 109-5 of the ITAA 1997). On the close out of the position, you make a capital gain or loss equal to the difference between the cost base of the ETO and the amount received on its expiry or termination (subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997). The capital gain or loss is calculated on each parcel of options.
So it seems it is far easier to record debit trades for tax purposes. It is easier for the tax office to see that you open a position by buying it, and close it by selling it. And in that case you net off the total after selling it. This is very similar to a trading shares and the CGT treatment is in effect very similar (the main difference is that it is not coming under CGT event A1 because there is no asset to dispose of, like in a shares or property trade).
Other ATO Info (FYI)
The ATO also referred me to the following documents. They relate to some 'decisions' that they made from super funds but the same principles apply to individuals they said.
The ATO’s Interpretative Decision in relation to the tax treatment of premiums payable and receivable for exchange traded options can be found on the links below. Please note that the interpretative decisions below are in relation to self-managed superannuation funds but the same principles would apply in your situation [as an individual taxpayer, not as a super fund].
Key quote from this decision: CGT Event D2will apply on the writing of an ETO by the Fund. The Fund as grantor of the option will make a capital gain (or loss) of the difference between the capital proceeds (that is, the premium receivable) and the cost of granting the option (for example, brokerage fees) at the time the option is granted
My take on this is that you will realise a capital gain on issuing of the selling position. I don't see how you could realise a capital loss in that scenario? Or maybe if you sell a position and the brokerage is so high that it outweighs the premium received (a dumb trade) then that would be a capital loss (a rare scenario).
Key quote from decision: When the Fund opens a position by buying an ETO, no immediate taxation consequences arise.CGT Event C2will happen to the Fund when its position under an ETO is closed out where the close-out results in the cancellation, release or discharge of the ETO
Don't forget to declare your trades on your tax return and keep a nice spreadsheet
Keep track of the exchange rates for each day you make a trade. You could do as you go and check the RBA exchange rates website for the daily number, or just do it all at once at the end of the financial year
Finally - I recommend ensuring that you save a portion of your income to pay the capital gains tax at the end of the year so you don't have to withdraw it from your portfolio and pay exchange rate fees to convert it back to Australian dollars. It will depend on your marginal tax rate what that percentage will work out to be in the end.
I’ve been practicing forex trades and planning to start trading soon (in a few weeks). Before I do I just wanted to clarify some things. First, how do I do the taxes? I’ve read quite a bit about how you can either report it as capital gain or as business income but I don’t understand how to choose? Secondly, which platform would you recommend?
Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now: Their latest 8k filing reported the following: Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions. Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results. The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020. FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders. As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here. It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down: https://preview.redd.it/frmtdk8e9hk51.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c0ff12539e0b2f9dbfda13d0565c5ce2b6f8f1a https://preview.redd.it/6axdb6lh9hk51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af1673272a5a2d8df28f60f4707e948a00e5ff1 FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with. Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp https://preview.redd.it/yo71y6qj9hk51.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9414bdaa03c06114ca052304a26fae2773c3e45 FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015: https://preview.redd.it/oxaa1wel9hk51.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d60d2518980360c403364f7150392ab83d07d7 So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33% https://preview.redd.it/e4trju3p9hk51.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6bee15f836c47e73121054ec60459f147d353e EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded. https://preview.redd.it/yl7f58tr9hk51.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=68906b9ecbcf6d886393c4ff40f81bdecab9e9fd P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy. https://preview.redd.it/4mqw3t4t9hk51.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d719f4913883b044c4150f11b8732e14797b6d Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016 https://preview.redd.it/lt34avzu9hk51.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3742ed87cd1c2ccb7a3d3ee71ae8c7007313b2b Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself. https://preview.redd.it/fliirmpx9hk51.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=1216eddeadb4f84c8f4f48692a2f962ba2f1e848 SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful. Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in. Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD). Inb4 pos or ban The Economics China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out. https://preview.redd.it/g0nwsssoe7f51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e46b6b2cfa12b351b30ff2c5567c2f9992e99b2 The Current Problem The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars. You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out). China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later. https://preview.redd.it/maul8aope7f51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dd4665517ec7303b51aa1416517c9e0ea50bef The Solution China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed. How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over. This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible. China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products. China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems. Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
Name one thing you wish your favorite exchange/crypto trading platform had
My imaginary perfect exchange would have forex, stocks, altcoins, and CFD for all of these. I could also use built-in tax reporting software, but that's secondary. But I said one thing - and that would be trading stocks with crypto. What's the one thing you wish your exchange had?
Dollar is following its heart. Forecast as of 06.11.2020
Weekly US dollar fundamental analysis
Markets are just like people. They follow their hearts from time to time and forget about common sense. Investors like the idea of the division in the Congress and the Democratic president. In this scenario, the risks of tax hikes and high tech companies' strict regulation are much lower. This fact supports the stock indexes. The S&P 500 has been up by 1% and more during four consecutive trading sessions, which has been for the first time since 1982. In percentage terms, those days have been the best since early April. Markets consider Joe Biden to be a better president than Donald Trump, which allowed the yuan to gain back more than 50% of the losses faced during trade wars. The EURUSD tested the resistance at 1.186-1.187. The growing chance of Biden’s victory encourages investors to spend the cash, which they have been accumulating ahead of the US presidential election. They are buying stocks and bonds. However, traders forget about other factors, such as the pandemic, uncertainty around the new fiscal stimulus, and Donald Trump’s willingness to reject the voting results. It looks like an attempt to give out desirable for valid. According to TD securities, there should not be any concerns about challenging the voting results, which has pushed the risky assets up and weakened the US dollar. DZ Bank believes that the greenback is falling because the voting results were reported earlier than some had expected. I do not think the above arguments to be strong. I suppose traders are following their hearts. They invest the capitals in the securities as they worry not to miss the uptrend, which sends the S&P 500 up, fuels global risk appetite, and weakens the US dollar against a basket of currencies.
Dynamics of world's currencies versus the US dollar
Source: Financial Times How long can it be going on? It depends. People in love are passionate during different periods. However, common sense should win sooner or later. The USA performs better than the euro area at the current stage of the economic cycle. The Fed is not willing to boost the monetary stimulus while the ECB tends to increase the current QE pace. According to Bloomberg’s leading indicators, the largest euro-area economies face a deeper drawdown in the PMIs because of the new lockdowns. The euro-area bond yields fall, which signals that the markets expect the ECB to take active measures in December.
The FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) finally got around to updating its list of unregulated online trading brokers. This list includes both forex and binary options unregulated brokers. Despite the fact, these brokers supposedly offer numerous services they are located in financial havens such as Seychelles, the Marshall Islands or Vanuatu and provide little to no information as to who they really are, and which parent company operates them. So, without further ado let’s introduce these fraudulent companies
Owned by LOK Marketing Ltd, this forex broker is supposedly located in Vanuatu, a tax haven for any illicit business. Apparently, SolidCFD appears to be forging a path for current forex brokers and others that would like to set up shop in the country, whose major exports are frozen fish and distinct floating edifices. However, upon further inspection, the SolidCFD has two other offices registered on their website. The first is under the name MGNC Marketing Ltd. and it is located in Cyprus. A quick google search tells us all that we need to know. MGNC Marketing LTD (Solid CFD) cold-calls potential investors and offers them unauthorized or prohibited financial services. An additional address is attributed to an area in West London. However, upon further review, there is no real company located there. Unsurprisingly no company is registered in the UK under SolidCFD, LOK marketing or MGNC Marketing, which implies that the broker has no physical presence in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, there is a whole list of negative reviews pertaining to SolidCFD. This includes clients being unable to withdraw their funds, aggressive salesmen and not being able to log back into an account once a withdrawal request is made.
Registered in the Marshal Islands, the company supposedly has an office in North London. However, the address that is provided is used by a company that enables other companies to register their business under their address. This obviously implies that StratX has no workers at its given address. Just by merely glancing at a few of the reviews tells you that StratX Markets is operated by a bunch of con-artists. In fact what is more alarming, a number of former clients are claiming that StratX personnel are operating a fraudulent fund recovery company called Linrow Clarion Solvency that claims they can recover money that was lost to illegitimate brokers like Stratx Markets.
Options Stars Global
Last but not least this “broker” is registered in Samoa, but apparently has some sort of a branch in Cyprus that is regulated by CySEC. That is patently false. Additionally, although the website has a U.K. phone number none of their of operations occur in the country. Not only Are there plenty of negative reviews about them, there is a dedicated Facebook page against them Users of the website report an inability to withdraw funds, threatening salesmen, and pushy brokers who tempt traders into depositing more cash into their accounts. The company has done so badly they even have a Facebook page against them.
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Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now: Their latest 8k filing reported the following: Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions. Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019. Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results. The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020. FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders. As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here. It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with. Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015: So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33% EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded. P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy. Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016 Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself. SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful. Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
November 2030 Well, uh, this sucks. Just a few short months after the Arab States of the Gulf finally unified, the world economy decided to explode. This is what we in the business of economics call a very bad thing. The effects across the FAS have been relatively disparate. The United Arab Emirates, easily the most diversified economy in the region, has been the least heavily impacted (though it's still bad). Diversification programs in Oman and Bahrain have also helped to stave off some of the worst impacts of the crisis, though they haven't been as successful in avoiding the effects as the UAE. Qatar and Kuwait, still almost entirely reliant on hydrocarbon exports, are not happy with this turn of events. Falling global oil prices, though propped up a little by a sudden increase in demand from China, have left their economies struggling much more than the rest of the country, and in desperate need of assistance from the better off parts of the country. One major pain point in this crisis has been the FAS's economic ties to the United States. While most of the FAS's trade is with Asia, Africa, and Europe, the US financial system still plays a crucial role in the FAS. The stability of the US Dollar has long been used to protect the economies of the Gulf using their vast Forex reserves (earned from oil sales) to peg their currency to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar in complete collapse, the value of the Khaleeji is plummeting right along with it, causing a significant degree of harm to the FAS's economy. To help offset this harm (and to decouple the FAS's economy from a country that the FAS is starting to view as maybe not the most reliable economic partner), the Central Bank in Dubai has announced that the Khaleeji will switch its peg from the US Dollar to a basket of foreign currencies (the Euro, the Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen). The FAS hopes that this will help to salvage the Khaleeji's value, better protecting the economy from the collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Rumor has it that the Central Bank is discussing the idea of unpegging the Khaleeji entirely and allowing it to float freely, but so far, the Central Bank has made no moves towards floating the Khaleeji. Crises suck. They shatter the status quo and throw established norms and procedures into chaos. No one really wins during a crisis. But in another sense, they're a double-edged sword. The status quo is often a repressive entity, reinforcing existing hierarchies and preventing dramatic shifts in the order of things. Chaos breaks that apart, giving the ingenuitive and the entrepreneurial on opportunity to better their lot in ways they otherwise could not. Put differently: chaos is a ladder, and the FAS intends to be the one climbing it. As the largest economy in the Arab World (and one of the world's 20 largest economies) by both nominal GDP and GDP per capita (by a significant margin--it's probably either Saudi Arabia or Egypt in second place in nominal GDP, and definitely Saudi Arabia in second place in GDP per capita, but the FAS more than doubles the country in second place in both categories, so it's sort of a moot point), the FAS hopes to cement its place as the regional economic power. The FAS has announced a new slate of policies intended to attract rich investors, manufacturing firms, and financiers fleeing the new nationalization program of the United States. New free trade zones have been created throughout the country--especially in the struggling, undiversified regions of Kuwait and Qatar--with the goal of convincing fleeing American manufacturers to set up shop in these areas. Attractions include wildly low tax rates (as low as zero percent in some instances), a common law framework (as opposed to the Sharia-based legal system in most of the FAS), highly subsidized land prices (sometimes free), relaxed financial restrictions (making it easier to move money in and out of the FTZ), and, for large enough firms moving enough operations into the country, preferential visa treatment (making it easier for them to relocate foreign employees into the country). Sitting at one of the major crossroads of global trade, moving operations to the FAS offers easy access to both the world's established consumer markets (like the EU and East Asia) as well as to some of its largest growing markets (South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and MENA). Pair this with wildly high standards of living (for people who aren't slaves Asian or African migrant workers) and established expatriate communities, and the FAS becomes an incredibly attractive option for American and other foreign firms looking to relocate. In addition to manufacturing-oriented FTZs, special attention has been paid to attracting service-oriented firms to new and existing FTZs in the vein of Dubai Internet City, Dubai Design District, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai Media City, with the goal of developing a robust service economy that can capture growing markets in the MENA, South Asia, and East African regions. In advertising these zones, the governments of the FAS have highlighted the success of previous ventures in Dubai, which have attracted the regional headquarters of giants like Facebook, Intel, LinkedIn, Google, Dell, Samsung, Microsoft, IBM, Tata Consultancy, and more. Perhaps one of the most substantial pushes, though, is to attract American financial services and FinTech firms to base in the FAS (particularly Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the traditional centers of regional finance). New financial industry free trade zones have been set up in the four cities, structured in the vein of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). These financial FTZs boast an independent and internationally regulated regulatory and judicial system, a common law framework, and extremely low taxation rates. All government services in these regions are available in English (the lingua franca of international finance), and in events where ambiguity exists in the legal and regulatory systems, the systems are set to default to English Common Law (except for the Kuwait City International Financial Centre, which is hoping to better tailor itself towards American financial firms by defaulting to American Civil Law from pre-2020 rather than English Common Law). Much like in the DIFC, these new FTZs will also run their own courts, staffed in large part by top judicial talent from Common Law (or in the case of Kuwait City, American Civil Law) jurisdictions like Singapore, England, and (formerly) Hong Kong. Using these FTZ, the four cities hope to raise their profile as financial centers. Dubai in particular is hoping to break into the top ten global financial centers--and it stands a good chance of doing so, too, as it sits at number 12, just behind cities like LA, SF, and Shenzhen--while the other cities are just hoping to boost their profile into the 20s or 10s (according to Long Finance, Dubai is number 12 in the world and 1 in the region, Abu Dhabi is number 39 in the world and two in the region, Doha is number 48 in the world, and Kuwait City is number 91).
[M] This meme I made describes how I feel right now, why can’t my economy just be normal and just function, very upsetting. [/M] The Russian economy is in freefall, which is quite an unfortunate problem to say the least. After experiencing minor growth for the past two years, the economy has decided to kill itself, which can be quite an issue when unemployment skyrockets to 22%, and the value of the rouble drops faster than Saudi Arabia’s chance of not being stuck in an eternal civil war. Taking experience from the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 Russian financial crises, we are well prepared to restore economic order to the country. This must be done quickly, as the longer we stall around, the more our people shall suffer, and the odds of escaping this pit of economic despair shrink. To escape this financial crisis, there are three main fields that need to be addressed extensively to prevent the economy from detonating on itself. The first field being social welfare and the lives of the people within Russia. With unemployment at 22%, the people of Russia will be suffering, and if we are to emerge from this crisis, we need to work with them and ensure their safety and wellbeing to recover faster. The second field is the rouble, and the general state of the economy. The value of the rouble has skyrocketed, and inflation is running rampant, which if this is allowed to continue, will decimate our economy even more, so this must be brought under control as soon as possible. Furthermore, many businesses and factories in the country have slashed employees and have almost gone out of business themself, so drastic action needs to be taken there. Finally, the final field being the roots of the crisis, corruption, and the sanctions on Russia from the west. The roots of the problem need to be pruned so that a disaster like this never happens again. Russia is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now, but this is our trying moment. If we emerge from this disaster, we will come out stronger than ever before, and will become closer as a country, showing that Russia is the only way forward. Through cooperation between the people and the government, we will make it through this crisis. Field One: Welfare One of the key fields of this crisis that needs to be addressed is the welfare of the people. Unemployment is at a record 22%, and this must be addressed before anything else can be done. With this many people unemployed and not able to get jobs, this will cause havoc all across Russia as people will struggle to make ends meet in terms of living their lives. To counteract the immediate issues that this will cause, food, shelter, and other amenities for people need to be secured and guaranteed. First off, guaranteeing food for all people who are unable to afford it or acquire it while being unemployed. In recent years our production of all agricultural goods has skyrocketed due to the introduction of GMOs, so we can provide government “soup kitchens” for the unemployed to come and reliably get food. The government will provide the farmers with money for their crops, and in return the food can be placed into these free places for people to eat, therefore avoiding the concern of people starving. Housing will not be as critical of an issue, as there is state housing available, but it is limited in capacity, so something must still be done. This issue can be solved with the issue of unemployment, which I will elaborate on further. Essentially, new state housing will be built in all places that need housing for the unemployed, and this can provide temporary residences for the people to stay out of the elements when the time comes. As for things like health care and such, these are provided by the government, and due to the recession, funding for them will be raised to account for the inevitable rise in human needs. To place a major dent in the issue of unemployment, much with what the United States did during the 1930s during the Great Depression, we will be taking a leaf out of their book and creating a plethora of new programs. The major program however, will be the program known as Rehabilitation Russia, which will revolve around infrastructure improvements all across Russia, and constructing new buildings as well. This ties into building new state housing, and draws inspiration from the programs from the American New Deal in the 1930s, namely the Works Progress Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, and the Public Works Administration. All of these programs focused on providing work to unemployed people, and working on infrastructure around the country. This same principle can be applied in Russia, hopefully to the same degree of success. The temporary jobs granted through these programs can provide enough time for the factories that these people were laid off from to be up and running again. With all of this in place, this can grant additional benefit to Russia while also ensuring that these people do not go without jobs. While not everyone will get a job from these programs, it will stem the major flow of unemployment for the meantime, and hopefully grant enough time for the major sources of employment to reopen. Additionally, for those who are unemployed, the current unemployment benefits are nowhere close to being enough to allow a person to survive. Per month currently, each person only gets around 12-80$ of unemployment money, which is insultingly low. In this recession, with a large number of people in unemployment, this number needs to be increased drastically. To aid the people who are unemployed, the minimum amount of money that can be granted per month will be raised to $150 USD, and the maximum will be raised to $960 USD, which depends on the lifestyle of each person. Someone who has a large family will receive the larger benefit, and someone who is alone will be granted the smaller funds. By raising the unemployment benefits for the recession, this will allow for the people of Russia to still be able to actually survive during these uncertain times. The funding needed for this will come from slashing other budgets across the scale, and from loans from the Central Bank of Russia. These loans, of course, will be eventually repaid once the recession is over, but something must be done in the meantime to provide the people with a form of welfare and the means to survive. Field Two: The Economy: The rouble is in freefall, and the economy is about to be hit by a large train of shinkage, which is quite an issue to summarize. The first thing that must be done for the economy will be to stabilize the rouble. To stabilize the rouble, just like in 2014, the Central Bank of Russia will withdraw $5 billion USD to purchase roubles in the Russian economy to work on stabilizing the currency. Due to the large reserves of the Russian Federation, this can easily be accomplished, and should be more than enough towards stabilizing the rouble. This being done will go a long way towards climbing out the recession, as the stabilization of the rouble will bring back confidence in the economy. To help revive the economy, a government bailout program will be the way that the economy is saved. Russia has extensive reserves of foreign currencies (henceforth referred to as forex reserves) that we have been saving for an event like this for sometime, and now is the time to use them. While $5 billion USD from our forex reserves is being spent to prop up the rouble, this will not be enough to stabilize the economy totally. Therefore a bailout program on a massive scale is required, and the estimated total cost of the government program is $200 billion USD. Around $100-150 billion of this can be gained domestically through raising the VAT and other taxes, while also dipping into our forex reserves and slashing the budget of other ministries. The rest of this money, however, will be given as a bailout loan from the IMF, depending on how much they are willing to give us. This government bailout will be critical to prevent the entire country from entering further economic collapse, and will give us a swift rebound. Where the money goes for the bailouts, however, will be very important as the money is limited as to where it will go. Therefore the money will mainly be focused on reopening factories and bringing back old job positions before the recession. Furthermore, money will also be needed to bailout other important companies that went under in the recession, so focusing on other businesses other than manufacturing is also important, as more places other than that went under. Small businesses in particular are quite important as large numbers of them went under during the crisis, so further bailouts for them are needed. The money will be divided as follows, $100 billion towards manufacturing bailouts as this sector of the economy was the hardest hit from the recession, $50 billion for small businesses, as they were also hit particularly hard, and $50 billion for other sectors of the economy that were hit, but not as hard as the previously mentioned ones. Through these targeted bailouts and financial measures, this should stem the flow from the recession. These measures emanate those from both the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 financial crises, and things that worked then will work now. Acquiring the funding for the bailouts domestically, however, will be difficult, and drastic measures must be taken to ensure this. The value added tax in Russia in particular will be raised from 20% up to 27% for the foreseeable future until the financial crisis has passed, and then past then it will be restored to the normal levels. In particular, the taxes on natural resource extracting will be raised up 2% from whichever level it was previously (this is done because the rates fluctuate for each resource and I don’t want to spend 3 hours writing down each and every one). Through both of these specific taxes being raised, the money from this will be enough to enable the bailout measure to be mostly be funded domestically, rather than through IMF loans. The raising of these taxes is only a temporary measure, and once the recession is over, they will go back to their standard levels so as not to make our citizens' lives even more difficult. Field Three: The Roots of the Crisis Despite having extensive measures to stop a crisis like this from even happening, they were not enough to escape the roots of the problems that led to this happening. Corruption and sanctions from the EU were the drivers of this entire recession, and something must be done to combat each and every one of them. No more measures to just delay the inevitable, these issues all right here stop this year, or the next year, Russia will no longer play victim towards the whims of the roots. Action will be taken, and these issues will cease to exist. Corruption is something that Vladimir Putin has already touched upon at an earlier time, but this time more must be done. Anti-corruption courts were already empowered, and corruption in various different sectors of the government was dealt with to remove the epidemic of bribery that existed within the country. However, one part of corruption that has not been dealt with was tax fraud and tax evasion, which now more than ever is something that needs to be clamped down on. Following the model of the United State’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS), we can mimic their actions to catch those who attempt to deprive the government of their taxes. Russia has a right rate of tax evasion and tax fraud, and by checking over reports sent by their employers and other third parties, and comparing it to their taxes, we can catch people who commit tax fraud. This is an issue that Vladmir Putin feels strongly about, so he will be personally expecting results from this now, and in the future. By attacking those who commit tax fraud and tax evasion, we can also provide the government with more revenue that is sorely needed at this time. Sanctions from the EU, however, have already been lifted significantly, and this will serve as the rallying cause for our economy. With the aid of European trade coming in, this can serve to assist our economy in climbing out of the recession. While this is not agreeable for our policy, this is something that must be done to ensure the economy does not suffer anymore than it has to. In the future, once the recession is over however, Russia will return to its former strength and prosper once again. Government interventions into the recession that are swift and precise can help bring about an end to this recession sooner and better. Following methods that worked during the last recessions and financial crises, Russia can escape this calamity stronger than before.
12 years of disciplined boring investing almost all in SPY and later VOO and I am a millionaire in my late thirties. 900k from index funds and 200k from real estate. Started with zero. No inheritance. Separate money from my wife (not counting her assets or contributions). Made mid five to low six figures income the whole time. One kid... now two. edit 1 I actually did not thing anyone would respond to this but a lot of people did. Some asked for proof. Here it is. Omitting real estate holdings. https://imgur.com/a/zI9UWJa Also including credit report - no debt outside a used car loan because I will not pay cash when I get money at 3.49%. Edit 2 People asked for more details. At a high level I have been investing / studying markets since I was very young. I tried everything (internet stocks, FOREX, Options, Futures, small caps etc) coupled with fundamental and technical analysis. Did OK, even won second place in a trading contest but never got what I wanted. Like many people I made bad decisions and had divorce, job loss, etc. Even had to close out an IRA in my twenties. Ended up turning to a disciplined index fund strategy about 12 years ago. Strategy was to max out 401k and live below my means (old car, no cable tv, make my own food, etc). At the end of each month swept all my pennies into an after tax fund since my 401k was maxed. That is it. Make your own coffee and buy VOO or SPY ideally in a tax advantaged account. I road this through the 2008/2009 crash - kept my investments and bought more. I also have small (like 5% of my money) in Bitcoin, Tesla and Pot stocks. This is purely for fun. A couple people mentioned this was just luck. I think it is important to understand the market will move up, retrace, consolidate and then move higher. The timing of this is somewhat luck. The strategy part is live below your means, buy and accumulate positions for years so when a bull market hits you are in. I guess you can call each runup "luck" except people keep living in debt no matter what their income. I would much prefer people take away an investment strategy that does work if you are a disciplined from someone not born rich and who tried a lot of different strategies. The takeaway really is with education and discipline you can reach a level of financial independence even after many screwups. I can publish this simple system and honestly few will follow it... There are no ads, systems to buy or affiliate links. I make zero dollars sharing this. I make my own coffee and watch netflix. I invest the rest in index funds. Take a trip or buy something if it really is important to me. That is it. Edit 3 People asked what is next. Teach my six year old and newborn savings and investing. Opening a ROTH* for the 6 year old and custodial brokerage account for the new addition. They will have millions as a safety net at retirement. They will now know about this money and will need to find their own path in life. Staying in the market, if it crashes I will buy more. Stating in until I reach 5-10 million. Don't need the money for a long time...
A ROTH requires earned income, they need to be hired in a family business, mow the lawn, model, deliver papers, etc. Google and your accountant has more legal ways to do this and interesting discussion. You can google "roth ira for newborn". I did not point this out early on. Sorry.
Fueling The Us Economy's Middle Market Growth Engine
It has a major presence in New York and different world monetary facilities both out and in of Europe. And if you are the owner of a privately held firm and this data has peaked your interest or even led you to have more questions, then attending a Generational Equity M&A seminar can be a sensible next step. A few hours of your time will provide you with substantial ideas to pursue in order so that you can take advantage of our present seller’s market.
Job Openings Related To Middle Market Investment Bank
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Investment banking compensation could not range all that much between working for one of many largest bulge bracket banks as in comparison with a smaller, elite boutique bank. While the bigger banks commonly handle bigger offers, those offers are few and much between smaller deals.
Stifel Employee Reviews
are monetary establishments or intermediaries that deal mostly with mid-market corporations, particularly for raising debt or fairness capital in addition to mergers and acquisitions.
Today, massive banks cater to their traditional clients, which incorporates particular person prospects and both massive and small corporations by providing savings and checking accounts, certificates of deposit, loans and similar companies.
Many of them also have companies that operate as funding banks, and work with corporate and institutional shoppers by offering underwriting of inventory offers, brokerage, and M&A advisory.
The definition of a business financial institution has advanced dramatically up to now a number of decades.
Middle market firms are mid-size companies having annual revenues from $10 million up to $500 million and one hundred to 2,000 staff.
Bank Of China focuses primarily on industrial banking actions similar to deposits and withdrawals, and international exchange. The bank also is even licensed to issue banknotes in Hong Kong and Macau. We specialize in delivering dependable, creative and compelling financing options to middle market corporations backed by personal equity sponsors. The firm’s credit experience also forms the inspiration of our Late Stage Lending enterprise and our Broadly Syndicated Loan funding program.
Are Investment Bankers Rich
I’m presently 21yrs old & finally transferred into a high 5 undergraduate enterprise program right here in Toronto, previously was learning biology for the mistaken causes. I tend to main in Accounting & Finance + Minors in Computer Science and Applied Statistics + Will be going by way of a rigorous coding bootcamp program. Yes, you might get extra consumer publicity and responsibilities in some teams, but you can additionally get stuck working on a lot of boring, normal sell-facet auctions and personal placements. Like other funding banks, the advisory companies of Bank of America Merrill Lynch are necessary for corporations looking to increase funds in public markets. When going public, funding bankers help decide the preliminary share value while balancing liquidity and demand. However, a excessive-return, low-risk mixture in a investment product, unfortunately, does not exist. Most buyers need to make investments in such a method that they get sky-high returns as shortly as potential with out the risk of dropping principal cash.
Middle Market Investment Bank Salaries In The United States
On the downside, there was an especially negative individual within the division who received together with no one. Pay was also mergers and acquisitions advisory very low, with only small cost of residing changes annually. While bonuses increased with longevity, you couldn't construct your salary. In a mezzanine loan, there might be collateral within the type of a pledge inventory. Step by step instruction on how the professionals on Wall Street worth an organization. certification program, designed to remodel anyone into a world-class financial analyst. In an actively traded fund, the returns are largely depending on a fund manager's capacity to generate returns. Index funds and trade-traded fund are passively managed, and these observe the underlying index. Equity schemes are categorised based on market-capitalisation or the sectors during which they make investments. The Central Bank with impact from July 1, 2020 has launched Floating Rate Savings Bond, 2020 . The biggest distinction between earlier 7.seventy five% financial savings bonds and the newly launched floating fee bond is that the interest rate on the newly launched financial savings bond is topic to reset in every six months. While they typically have locations spanning a single nation, center market banks are rarely found internationally. Full-service funding banks supply a variety of business and funding providers. Chief Executive’s publications are designed to assist CEOs do their jobs better and run their businesses more effectively. Those that begin doing so now will set up themselves fully in a market that, by design, is much more difficult to oversaturate as a result of its sheer volume.
AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going
Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today
Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?
In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex! A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.
Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate
Source: Bloomberg China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.
Chinese imports from Australia
Source: Bloomberg Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally? The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
Moved 2 years ago, savings followed later - any tax implication?
So I immigrated to Canada about 2 years ago but I didn’t move all my funds/savings with me (except a bit for emergency spending) as I didn’t have much expenses. I only moved majority of my savings (~500k) in the past two weeks as I was getting a good forex exchange rate. Would I need to report to CRA (or perhaps to FINTRAC?) next year as the transfer amounts were big? (Each transfer was of about 50k) And also should I be concerned of any tax implications as maybe I shouldn’t have transferred these savings as big amounts lumped together? Thank you in advance for your kind advice!
I am finishing my taxes and preparing to submit them. I had forex losses in 2019 . I would be able to claim up to the $3,000 loss that I believe you can report. I am using FreeTaxUSA and am slightly confused about how to access Form 8949 and "Schedule D" which I apparently would use to report this loss, but I PROBABLY could figure it out. I haven't traded for months, and am not actively trading. My question is this:
Which software, if any, do you guys use for your taxes?
How much money do I actually save by reporting this? Do you guys report your losses?
Are there any tips I should know about reporting this?
It's a lot harder to make money in forex if you pay your taxes
In 2016 I made ~3000 USD trading with Oanda and correctly guessing the outcome of the brexit referendum. I did my taxes through HR block that year, and it took a bit to figure out how to report my earnings through forex trading. The accountant told me in fact she'd never heard of anyone doing this before. Forex brokers are not required to report client earnings to the IRS, unlike companies that fall under the legal definition of a broker
OANDA does not report taxes on behalf of our clients, and as a result we do not provide any tax forms relating to profit/loss on your account (e.g. 1099-B form). The information you would need to complete your tax reporting can be found on your annual account statement, which you can download from your My Account page by clicking on 'View account statements'. Information about other types of tax form OANDA does provide can be found below.
However, this should be obvious, (EDIT: if you're subject to US taxes) you have a legal obligation to pay income taxes on any money you earn through forex, unless you have a lawyer or accountant who says otherwise (for instance because you're trading on behalf of a company etc). Of course with forex trading, there is money lost on the spread, but the money lost in taxes in years where you win is much greater. Forex earnings are income taxes so while it is true that you can deduct losses in years where you lose significant money there's a major issue, the standard deduction. With the standard deduction recently increased, most middle class tax payers will want to select it. But selecting the standard deduction means you can't deduct forex trading losses from that year. This is something people don't pay enough thought to when they plan on doing forex trading. So I just wanted to let people know that there's a force far greater than the spread that you need to contend with. tl;dr growing up, is awfuller, than all the awful things that ever were
Share of world GDP from 2.43% in 2014 to 3.08% in 2018
Average GDP 7.3% against 6.7% in previous regime
Forex reserves from 300 bn USD in 2014 to 420 bn USD in 2018
Doubling of FDI inflow from 36 bn USD in 2014 to 66 billion USD in 2018
Inflation less than 2.3 % (Nov 18) against 10.1% in 2014
Growth of sensex from 24,121.74 in 2014 to 36,395.03 on 12 Feb 19 (50.88%)
Fiscal deficit under control
Per capita income increased by 45% from Rs 86,647 in 2014 to Rs 1,25,397
IT exemption from 2 lakh in 2014 to 5 lakh (effectively 9.85 lakh with home loan)
Restaurant bills tax reduced from 18% in 2014 to 5%
Transaction charges through card down from 1% to 0%, domestic money transfer fee down from Rs 5 in 2014 to zero
Financial inclusion (32 crore bank accounts with 260 billion worth deposits). Almost 100% coverage from earlier 50%
DBT (savings of 83000 crores @ 15000 crore annually), No of govt schemes DBT applied to increased from 34 in 2014 to 433, 2.7 lakh fake mid-day meal students, 3.3 crore fake LPG connections, 87 lakh fake MNREGA job cards, 3 crore fake ration cards eliminated
Zero IT for businesses with turnover upto 60 lakhs
GST exemplifying cooperative federalism, rates of 83 items down from pre-GST rates, out of 1211 items only 35 items in above 18% slab, 39% reduction of cost of basic household items. Average 1 lk crore monthly revenue through GST collection. Exempted for business upto 40 lk
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, constitution of NCLT, 3 lakh crores of NPAs recovered, 66 cases resolved, 260 cases liquidated, resolution of stressed assets, 2100 companies pay back 83000 crore to banks settling their pending loan repayments
75 billion $ or Yen to Rupee exchange agreement with Japan
2.92 lakh km of optical fibre laid, 0.02% to 50% gram Panchayat connectivity
Swachh bharat mission has saved, according to WHO, 3 lakh lives and will save 1.5 lakh lives per year.
IT filers increase from 3.79 crore to 6.08 crore, enterprises registered for indirect tax up from 64 lk to 118 lakh
Entry of India in global regimes Missile Technology Control regime (MTCR), WA (Wassenaar Arrangement) and Australia Group
17 crore soil health cards
1.5 crore houses built, 91.37 crore in rural areas and 13.5 lakh in urban areas against 25 lakh houses built between 2010-2014. House for all target year is 2022.
1,78,346 houses built in NE over existing 2875 houses built till 2014
Home loan interest rate down from 10.3 % in 2014 to 8.4% in 2018, annual savings of Rs 47,160 for 30 lakhs over 30 years, no GST on affordable housing, 5% on remaining
Trading agreement in rupee with Iran and UAE
Common service centres up from 84k to 3 Lakh
OROP implemented after 43 years, 35000 crores disbursed to 8 crore veterans
India's vaccination programme Indradhanush amongst 12 best practices of world
5035 Jan Aushadhi and - 1054 medicines under price control (60-90% discounts).
More than 150 Amrit stores, reduction of cost of cromium cobalt Knee implant from 1.58-2.5 lakh to 54,720 and high flex implant from Rs181728 to 56490 (69%), 85% reduction in cardiac stent price to Rs 28000
87% reduction in 400 cancer drugs
Rate of Interest on higher education loans dropped from 14.75 in 2013 to 10.88% in 2019, savings of 1.18 lakh on 10 lakh loan over tenure of 60 months, Rs 2000 savings on EMI
Data revolution: Cost of 1 GB $0.26 in India against $12.37 in US, $6.66 in UK and $75.2 in Zimbabwe. Unlimited mobile+ 45 Gb data = Rs 150 against Rs 1000 in 2013; annual savings of 10,200
Katra rail line work completed after 16 years
Dhola Sadiya bridge work completed after 16 years
Sardar Sarovar Dam work completed after 15 years
Pakyong airport completed after 10 years
Chennai Nashri Tunnel after 10 years
Assam NRC after 40 years
National War Memorial after 50 years
NE cpas after 60 years
Kollam bypass after 43 years
Indo-Bangladesh enclaves after 42 years
Bansagar canal project after 40 years
Bogibeel bridge after 23 years
Western peri expressway after 15 years
Kota Chambal bridge after 11 years
Maibang-Lumding Stretch completed
Delhi Meerut Expressway completed
Ganga Expressway project (world's longest) underway
Metros in Ahmedabad, Nagpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Washermenpet
All umanned level crossings eliminated
Ayushman Bharat: annual 5 lakh health care to every family, 15.05 lakh hospital admissions for secondary/ tertiary treatment, 2.4 crore e-cards generated as on 10 Mar 19 in 170 days. Target 50 crore people.
59minutes loan portal: 92,000 loan applications of MSME amounting to 30,000 crores approved, 6000 crores sanctioned till Nov 18
87% of farming house (owning land of 2 hctrs) or 12 cr ppl to get kisaan sammaan nidhi of Rs 6000 pr year. Rs 5215 cr transferred directly to 2.6 crore farmers in 37 days (for households with holding less than 0.01 hectares incm per month so far was Rs 8136 agnst exp of 6594
1.5 million electric rickshaws
Procurement of 36 Rafale on Government to Government Basis avoiding middlemen
05 billion$ S 400 Triumf air defence missile system deal with Russia
Udaan scheme - flight cost down from Rs 5000/1000 km in 2013 to 3400/1000 km in 2018, 34 airports operationalised, small towns connected, all states on aerial
Preventive conservation of 39275570 folios, curative conservation of 3656863 filios, digitisation of 2.83 lakh manuscripts consisting of 2.93 crore pages
India is now world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer, 2nd largest smartphone manufacturer (94% of mobiles sold now made in India), 4th largest automaker, 2nd largest steel producer
5100 m Mandvi Bridge in Goa in 3.5 years
Ease of doing Business ranking jump from 134 in 2014 to 77 in 2019
Therubali - Singapur Bridge No 588
Restoration of Asurgarh Fort, Kalahandi
GeM portal with 731431 product categories, 180,862 registered sellers and 32114 govt buyers
10% EWS reservation
40% of ongoing 700 NH projects completed, adding 40,039 km between 2014-18 against 91,287 km between 1947-2014
Highway construction rate jumped from 12 km/day in 2014 to 27 km/day in 2019
101 terrorists and 11 offenders extradited
90,000 ex-partite Indians evacuated
Chabahar port, Sittwe port and Duqm port
Military installation in Seychelles
International logistics agreements with US, France and Singapore
Work underway on 25 MLD ZLD Common Effluent Treatment Plant at Gujarat Eco Textile Park and will save 25 million litres of water per day
Beautification of 65 railway stations, all stations fitted with LED lights, wi-fi, multi-brand food centres, kiosks, executive lounges, lifts (445 from 97 in 2014), escalators (603 from 199 in 2014), travellators and ramps
100% electrification of railways underway, first solar powered railway station (Guwahati). First solar powered train (world's second), savings of Rs 40 Lakhs and 90,000 ltrs diesel per year
Make in India semi-high-speed trains - Tejas, Gatiman and Vande Bharat
Humsafar and Antodaya trains, Deen Dayalu and Anubhuti coaches, UDAY double decker, glass dome Vistadome coaches
Project Swarn and Project Utkrisht to upgrade Rajdhani/Shatabdi and Mail/Express respectively
Largest coach production in world at ICF, Chennai
No more human extreta on railway tracks. Installation of 1.37 lakh out of 2.5 lakh completed in Jun 18.
400 wi-fi railway stations (Aug 18)
80% reduction in rail accidents
10 high speed rail corridors underway, target date 2025-26
Export of world class customised coaches from MCF, Rae Bareli
LIC and Air India register profit
2300 km rail tracks constructed, speed jumped from 4.1 km/day in 2014 to 6.53 km/day in 2018
Neem coating of urea
Gokul mission - record 160 million ton milk production
Online availability of CBSE and NCERT books
10 crore LED bulbs distributed, 5000 crore savings
Investment in urban infrastructure jumped from 157703 crores to 795500 crores
Statue of Unity to commemorate Iron Man of India
Rs 2509 crore sales in Khadi
482.36 million digital transactions worth Rs 74,978 crores in Oct 2018 against 0.3 million transactions worth Rs 90 crores in Nov 2016
30% increase in ATMs, 208% increase of PoS machines from 10.81 lakh in May 14 to 33.32 lakh in Aug 18, 111% increase in credit cards from 1.94 crore in May 14 to 4.10 crore in Aug 18, 144% increase in debit cards from 40.17 crore to 98.02 crore
Ease of Doing Business Index 142 (2014) to 100 (2018)
Ease of getting electricity index 99 (2014) to 26 (2018)
UN's e-govt index 118 (2014) to 97(2018)
Globalisation index 112 to 107 (2018)
Innovation index 76 to 60 (2018)
Competitiveness index 71 to 39
Logistics performance index 54 to 35
Global peace index 141 to 137
DBR ranking 100 to 77
India ranks 3rd in global start up ecosystem
06 crore jobs in MSME sector based on CII data
448 million formal jobs based on EPFO, NPS and PPF data
10 crore jobs in entrepreneurship via mudra and other schemes
80% increase in tax payers, 51.3 % increase in gross tax revenue
Black Money report card - Voluntary income declaration scheme (Rs 65250 crore), IT search and survey operations (35,460 crore), Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana(5000 crore), Benami transactions Act (4300 crore), Black Money and Imposition of Tax Act (4100 crore)
160 Rs 6000 financial assiatence for pregnant women 161/1 . Sagarmala: port capacity increase from 8 to 14.7 lakh ton, cargo up from 89 to 116 MMT 8 new national waterways including ganga waterway NW-1 and Brahmaputra waterway NW-2. 161/2. domestic cruise service between Mumbai and Goa, ro-ro services on Ghoga-Dahej reducing travel distance from 294 to 31 km 161/3. New international cruise terminals at Chennai and Goa, railway line between Haridaspur and Paradip underway, LNG import terminal at Kamarajar port, Oil berth ai Jawahar Dweep,Coal berth at Mangalore port 161/4 . deep draft Iron ore berth at Paradip berth, JNPT SEZ, Kandla and Paradip smart industrial port city, largest dry dock and international ship repair facility at CSL, modernisation of 17 fishing harbours
800 km Delhi-Mumbai Expressway underway
Replacement of bio-toilets with upgraded vacuum bio toilets in trains underway. Order for 500 placed on experimental basis.
No terror strikes in hinterland
103 new KVs
62 new Navodaya Vidyalayas
6 new IITs against 16 in previous 57 years
6 new IIMs against 13 in previous 57 years
7 IIITs against 7 in previous 57 years
02 new IISER
12 new AIIMS against 7 in previous 57 years.
141 new universities against 30 in previous 57 years
01 new NIT
Life Insurances @ Rs 12 annual and @ Rs 12 monthly premiums
Atal Pension Yojana
Pension to 42 crore people of unorganised sector
BHIM application for digital payments
Khelo India Initiative for tracking of athletes' development, Rs 5 lk per annum scholarship for 1000 budding athletes per year for eight years each; monthly Rs 50000 out-of -pocket exptr, 2000 PETs, salary cap of coaches doubled from Rs 1-2 lk per month, target 15 yrs
Special Task Force for Olympics
Bullet train maiden project
182/1. Rs 6.92 lakh crore Bharatmala project, 44 economic corridors with 9000 km road, 2000 km port connectivity, 9000km roads to connect district HQs with NH, 182/2. 2000 km road with Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, opening up of 185 choke points, road development to char dham, 12 greenfield expressways spanning 1900 km
36 murtis retrieved and brought back to India in 2014-2019 under India Pride Project against 02 between 2000-2013, 02 in 90s, 03 in 80s, 01 in 70s and nil in 50s and 60s
Unemployment rate 3.8% against 13.8 % in 2013
India is a less-cash society now
Develpment of Trincomalee and Columbo port while checkmating China's Hambantota by taking operations of near by (15 km away) Mattala Rajapaksha International Airport
Plugging the 'double taxation avoidance' black money loophole through a new tax agreement with Mauritius
Deal with Switzerland for automatic tax data sharing from 01 Jan 2019
189/1 Varanasi - Varanasi ring road phase 1 completed, phase 2 underway, inland waterways terminal, Babatpur airport highway, 140 MLD Dinaput STP, facelift to railway station, big cow shelter for stray cattle, BPO centre, piped gas project, Varanasi-Balia rail project, 189/2. Vande Bharat Express, Kashi Vishwanath temple - Ganga Ghat corridor project, renovation of all bathings ghats, LED illuminations of ghats and major roads, underground electricity cabling, 189/3. new sewage plants, 02 cancer treatment facilities, 65th to 29th rank in swachhata sarvekshan (2016), 90% ODF district.
Creation of 100 Smart cities, 100 crore per year per city for 05 years, 500 acres for retrofitting, 50 acres for redevelopment, 250 acres for green field projects, 10% of energy from renewable resources, 80% of green building construction, special purpose vehicles.
191/1 Development of 500 AMRUT cities underway, urbanization project of rejuvenation and transformation which includes beach front development, prevention of beach erosion, improvement of water supply, replacement of pipelines, 191/2. New sewerage connections, greenery and open spaces, digital and smart facilities, e-governance, LED streetlights, public transport, storm water drainage projects in a phased manner, Target date 2022
Increase in Child Sex Ratio (CSR) in 104 BBBP (Beti Bachao Beti Padhao) districts, anti-natal care registration in 119 districts and institutional deliveries in 146 out of total 640 districts as in Mar 18. CSR of Haryana increased from 871 to 914.
International Yoga Day
Aspirational Districts Programme: 115 'backward' districts placed under 'prabharis' and for competitive development on the basis of 49 performance indicators, target year 2022.
195/1. Make in India: 16.4 lakh crore investment committments, 1.5 lakh crore investment inquiries, 60 bn USD FDI, 26 sectors covered, 23 positions jump in World Bank's Doing Business Report (DBR), 32 places in WEF's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), 195/2 19 places in Logistics Performance Index, 42 places in Ease of Doing Business index, schemes include Bharatmala, Sagarmala, dedicate freight corridors, industrial corridors, UDAN-RCS, Bharat Broadband Network, Digital India.
251 Passport Seva Kendras (PSKs) and Post Office Passport Seva kendras (POPSKs) against 77 till 2014, target of one PSK every 50 km across India.
Unanimous election of Justice Dalveer Bhandari to ICJ forcing UK to pull out own nominee Christopher Greenwood, demonstrating India's clout in international arena.
India Post Payments Bank: India's biggest banking outreach with 1.55 lakh post offices (2.5 times banking network) linked to IPPB system
Philip Kotler award, Seoul Peace prize, Champion of the Earth Award, Grand Collar of the State of Palestine, Amir Abdulla Khan Award, King Abdulaziz Sash award, Amir Amanullah Khan award.
1900 gifts and memorabilia received by Modi auctioned and 11.7 crores added to Namami Gange fund, 1.4 c of Seoul Peace award also to Nammami Gange.
Removal of article 370 and thereby also 35a after several decades.
Giving citizenship to persecuted minorities in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan through passing of CAA.
Trust for creation of Ram Mandir underway.
Abolishment of Haj subsidy.
Abolishment and criminalization of instant triple talak.
Deal with Bodo community.
Getting Maulana Masood Azhar listed as an UN designated terrorist.
https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15 Download PDF of this article here:https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company. Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound. In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it! Stock code: 5199.KL Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199 Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as: · looking for oil, · drawing it out of the ground, and · selling it on global oil markets. This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020). https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684 https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields. Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices. At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)
To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production. In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below: As defined by the SPE PRMS,Reservesare “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.) Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:) - A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria;- A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development;- Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and- Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated. Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below: -Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and)-Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes. In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes: - Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate;- Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and- High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded. Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”. However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation: https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78 Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022). Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl. In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources. https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604 The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl). This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million). However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus. To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. North Sabah oil field https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field. For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are: · Average uptime · Total oil sold · Average realized oil price · Average OPEX per bbl With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields. Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime. As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross. We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl. Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl. Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures: · Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl Anasuria oil field https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field: · Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl · Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl · Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
Valuation (Method 1)
Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data: https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2 Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x. Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant: https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2 From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices. Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
Valuation (Method 2)
Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another. As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it. https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8 From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet). Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit: https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves ofRM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price. However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that. Intangible Assets I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet. As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion). https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all? To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs: E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets. E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.) Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment. On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following: Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).) So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate. Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required. So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following: Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116)) Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation? Fortunately, we find just that on page 185: 17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED) (a Anasuria Cluster) The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.) The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows: (i Discount rate of 10%;) (ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;) (iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,) (iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.) Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount. (b North Sabah) The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements. The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year. Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field. How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billionapproximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves. To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves
RM 1.452 billion
RM 1.468 billion
By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis. For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business. https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b Income Statement First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m. Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32). https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60 This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m). Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later. Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis. Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment. Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense. https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8 Balance Sheet The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity. We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again. Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations. Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes. Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020) Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m. Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes. The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large. We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m. Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices. Cash Flow Statement There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern. Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI. Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are: · Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time · Fluctuation of exchange rates · Customer concentration risk · 2P Reserves being less than estimated · Significant current and non-current liabilities · Potential issuance of equity Oil prices remaining subdued Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing. Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51 The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36. Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green). Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing. Customer Concentration Risk With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished. 2P Reserves being less than estimated 2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’). Significant non-current and current liabilities The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern. Potential issuance of equity Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years. Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out. However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below: · Increased Daily Oil Production Rate · Inclusion of 2C Resources · Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Increased Daily Oil Production Rate The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production. The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward. By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day). Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day). This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet. Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day. While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations. Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates: Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159 The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates. The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day. Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above. 2C Resources Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates. To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil. https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil. Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY21 (incl. 2C)
Daily oil production (bbl/day)
Average oil price (USD/bbl)
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)
EBITDA (RM ‘m)
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20. For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby. Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented). Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years. When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.
Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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